Monthly Archives: April 2014

HERE IT COMES FOLKS – WE NEVER, EVER LEARN…

I’m copying all of this excellent article from the ABC’s Alan Kohler.  Read into it what you will, but really, “are you kidding me?”… Do we never learn?  The Perfect Storm I’ve written about already is now definitely upon us.  This rise, if you will, may be rapid in some sectors of the market but when interest rates inevitably rise, the fallout will be catastrophic.  Here’s the article from ABC News Online  17 April 2014

The mortgage-backed securities market is booming and bodes well for bank competition. But it’s driving house prices higher and making it even harder for first homebuyers, writes Alan Kohler.

After five years of near death, the residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market in Australia is roaring back to life, which is both good and scary.

Good because the banks might finally get some competition from non-bank lenders again; scary because the resurgent supply of prime and subprime mortgage money from yield-hungry investors is not being matched by the supply of new land to lend against, so it’s just driving house prices higher.

We are seeing two quite different markets being mixed together: one for credit that is active and plentiful (call this one nitro) and one for land that is short (call it glycerin).

In 2013, $26 billion worth of RMBS were issued in Australia, which was the most anywhere in the world, according to Deloitte partner Graham Mott. So far in 2014 the market in mortgage securities is still active, with big issues from AMP, AFG, Pepper Home Loans, Heritage Bank and Liberty.

In a speech to the Economic Society yesterday, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Guy Debelle, said: “Deal sizes have increased, especially for RMBS issued by the major banks, where the average size has increased to $2.5 billion.”

He added that issuance has picked up for the major banks as well as regional banks and non-banks (i.e. credit unions and mortgage originators), with “a number of smaller issuers returning to the market after an absence of several years”.

“RMBS … spreads, over the last year or so, have remained at their lowest level since mid 2007, despite the significantly larger volume that has been brought to market.”

A large and growing proportion of the securities are backed by non-conforming, or sub-prime loans, paying higher yields. These are about half “low doc” (not much detail on the borrower) and half to borrowers with bad credit ratings.

According to one issuer I spoke to this week, the buyers are apparently church funds, health insurance companies and state treasuries that prefer the risk/return equation of sub-prime mortgages.

But most of the RMBS being issued are AAA securities and, surprisingly, a lot of them are being bought by banks, which are, in effect, funding their competitors.

They are doing it because the furious competition, and therefore high interest rates, for retail deposits has filled their coffers and there isn’t enough demand for credit to soak it up. Buying AAA-rated mortgage securities is an easy way to make a return, even if you don’t know the end customer and can’t sell them insurance or super.

Money has been pouring into bank deposits for a few years, and now, once again, it’s pouring into the arms of “shadow banks” at lower interest rates, reminiscent of the non-bank lending boom from 2003-2007.

The typical AAA-rated RMBS issue is at 105-120 basis points above the bank bill swap rate, which is 2.7 per cent at present.

That puts the wholesale cost of funds at 10-50 basis points below retail deposit rates, and is allowing the non-bank lenders, as well as smaller banks, to gnaw away at the massive market shares of major banks.

The only problem with this idyllic scene is that all the money and lending competition is only pushing up real estate prices.

There simply isn’t enough land being released in Australia to match either the demand for housing or the supply of credit.

Bob Day, the Family First Senator-elect and one of Australia’s biggest home builders, calls it the “Baptist/bootlegger” problem.

The Baptists and the bootlegger were both in favour of prohibition for different reasons: one for misguided morality, the other to make money. He says that about 15 years ago a similar (non-collusive) coalition of environmentalists and developers formed in Australia to restrict land release.

The result, says Day, is that while the cost of building a house has come down, getting land to put it on is hard and expensive. He says that 20-30 years ago the price of a block of land was about 40 per cent of the cost of a house; now the land cost is 2-3 times the cost of a house.

The result is that instead of being three times the average wage as it used to be, the cost of housing in Australia is 6-10 times the average income. First homebuyers are now totally excluded from home ownership unless their parents support them.

It’s not a bubble – yet – because it’s merely the true forces of supply and demand working (which is the definition of a non-bubble).

Supply is restricted (of land, not houses) and demand is being fuelled by immigration and the plentiful supply of credit to investors looking to take advantage of negative gearing.

And the rejuvenation of the RMBS market will only increase the supply of credit even further and lower its price.

Next: perhaps a recommendation from the Financial System Inquiry chaired by David Murray that retirees be forced to take at last part of their super payout as a pension rather than a lump sum (so they can’t blow it on a world trip before reverting to the aged pension – which would also help take the pressure off the government-funded aged pension).

That would give another boost to the RMBS market because mortgage-backed securities are perfect investments for private annuities and pensions.

In other words, the supply of credit for mortgages, both prime and subprime, is only going in one direction – up – and it wouldn’t take another subprime mortgage bubble to produce a glut of cash available to be lent against real estate.

By the far best solution would be a big increase in the supply of serviced land in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, but it would be slow and the infrastructure would be expensive – too expensive for the first homebuyers themselves to pay, or for governments for that matter.

Will the Coalition Government regulate the supply of credit or restrict negative gearing? Unlikely.

So it looks like your super will have to go towards buying the kids a house: they’ll never be able to afford one.

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PERFECT STORM BREWING – 03 APRIL 2014

It’s all adding up….well, for me anyway, so let’s see how this pans out.

Retail stores are closing at an alarming rate in the USA and Europe, and yes, here in Australia.  My local large shopping centre has just had 5% of tenancies “walk” at the end of their leases, with strong suggestions from people I know who are “in business” but only just, in the same centre, that up to 10% of the tenancies could walk in coming months.  Unlike 2005 for instance, there aren’t 40 people waiting in the wings to get into this centre.  There is no-one.  No registers of interest, no active list, reserve list or any kind of list.

Large shopping centres are dinosaurs and some people just won’t admit it.  Ridiculous rents forcing retailers to charge equally ridiculous prices and therefore having no chance against online retailers with cheap-as-chips warehouse rent in the middle-of-nowhere.

There are otherwise intelligent people (I think) spending nearly AUD$700 million on rebuilding and revitalising another massive local shopping/destination centre.  The reasons they cite to try and justify their decision are plain ridiculous – the place will be an albino pachydermata.

If shopping centre owners drop their rents to a level where traditional retailers can once again run a half decent business, capital values will plummet.  Flow on to smaller commercial and industrial properties is sure. Lack of return, loss of jobs and its not hard to see residential housing taking a dive as well.  Don’t think so?

Massive interest rate cuts have failed to stem the drop in residential values.  The butchering of statistics continues.  I was recently challenged as to why my view differed from the those reported in the news and delivered startling “real results” to back up my view.  Yet again a number of properties in a suburb were quoted as delivering massive price rises that contributed to the percentage rises being quoted in the news.  Shallow analysis of each of these properties showed that there were, in each and every case, factors that impinged on the price rise and therefore those properties should have been excluded from the ‘results’ for that suburb.  Trouble is, you take those properties out, and the price FALL is dramatic.

Factors that made for selling prices being reported as UP from previous acquisition prices were as I’ve reported before in my blog.  Reconfiguring a home to cater for two families. Significant and costly renovations not taken into account. Rezoning of land adding to it’s base value.  And so on.  And… no IN and OUT costs taken into account to arrive at a nett gain (if any).

Make no mistake that fiscal policy makers are all out of ideas for getting our economy going.  The USA think-tank  has screwed up and nothing is working over there.  I know many people in the USA in business and they tell me it’s rubbish that side of the Pacific, more than a little scary and they’ve little to no confidence.

The USA 30 year mortgage rate when I was there in 2013, was about 3.4%.  A year later and its nudging 4.5%.  If the same rate of rise occurs here (and it will) our rates will jump 30%!  Imagine mortgage repayments for all those silly sods who dived in with their 90% plus loans on minimal deposit using their Mum n Dads place as extra collateral…  Most are paying over $500 a week – that could easily jump to $650 a week – and wipe out their ability to EAT!

An interest rate jump of that magnitude will cause a REAL and long overdue drop in house prices.

CHINA – for a start you can’t believe most of the numbers that come out of ‘Official’ China however the word from people I know who travel regularly to that mysterious land is that things are crap. I’ve heard it said that China is at about 2004/2005 on the Western GFC Clock.  When their house-of-cards comes down it will not be pretty and the flow on will be nasty.

Its all coming to  ahead.  If you have property, sell it NOW and take advantage of the pseudo reports and spin to get some sucker to cough up.  RENT, or take a long holiday.  And buy back in when the dust settles.  Go back in this blog to see just HOW CHEAP housing is in so many desirable areas of the USA – not the ghettos of Detroit but NICE PLACES TO LIVE.

We are waaay to expensive and need a correction… It’s coming…

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