Hi from Gaeta, Italy

Driving extensively across Italy it’s easy to validate an Economist that I met here opinion that the Italian economy is stuffed.

Similarly, you’d have to be living under a rock not to see that Australia’s real estate market is in the 15 to 20% range of a 100% correction.

My prediction is that prices will correct to below the CPI line drawn since 2001and that will be the point at which I may re enter the real estate market.

Example. I sold a small 3 bedroom house in 2002 for $199,000.00.  CPI puts this house today at about $305,000.00. It’s last sale was $485,000.00, crazy money.

Expect the correction to see this house in the high 200’s. Then and only then, would I consider buying.


OECD chimes in

It is now rapidly coming to fruition. The “reset we had to have” is well underway. I’m back on the Gold Coast from Europe for a couple of weeks. Met a lot of interesting people during my 6 months of continuous travel, many in finance, banking and real estate. There is an ongoing massacre in “Nappy Land” and my research sees many houses in the First Home Buyer belt changing hands for 25% less than they paid. This cancer will spread and affect the whole market.

Even the OECD now believes we are in for a hard landing. I agree.

No real estate for me.

And so it continues

One million Aussie owner occupied homes now officially in “Mortgage Stress”.

Tell us something we don’t already know!

USA nearing full employment and the Fed looking at 2 interest rates hikes sooner rather than later.

Anyone say “Perfect Storm”?

G’day from the wee fishing village of Anstruther near Edinburgh, Scotland

Well, it’s all happening as I predicted. 11 straight months of falling house prices

Banks and other lenders, unable to source cheap money, jacking up their loan rates independently of the Reserve Bank’s direction.  Interest rates go up, affordability drops, house prices decline. When a market is already in decline, and buyers are heading for the exits, (oh, no, wait…. they’ve already left!) Shit!  Ahhhhhh…..oh oh! We’re screwed…

I told you a long time ago. Sell your house and rent. Only a very few listened.

If you had a house worth say $800,000 in January this year, you have kissed goodbye to a minimum $60,000 depending on your marketplace. Perhaps more….and…even if wanted OUT now, there’s no buyers!

Oh deary deary me.  Should’ve listened


Even in the United Kingdom

G’day from Gerrards Cross outside London where the market here is really nervous! Reports across all media, with some nice areas around here suffering sales rate falls as much as 65%.

I’ve spoken with 3 real estate agency principals and they are all shaking their heads.  The market is at the “impasse” stage, with “scared of losing”, stubborn sellers sitting on high listing prices, and nervous buyers, fearful of rising interest rates and of paying too much, sit on their hands.

It won’t be long before “stretched” buyers start to “meet the market” and the true correction starts.

Now the Big Names are calling it

Here we go folks.  If you have a lot of equity in your home, or you own investment properties and have built up equity….sell NOW!

Major players in the world of economic crystal balling are calling the WHOLE MARKET in an ever increasing rate of fall. We are now looking at an annualised 8+% fall in the major markets.  If major markets with attractive fundamentals (close to CBD, transport, beach, attractions, facilities) are going to take an 8+% hit per annum over the next 2 years, then outlying, marginal markets, already under mortgage stress, will take a massive pounding!

My forecast for outlying ‘Nappy land’ areas, and apartments in general, is a 20 to 25% fall by the end of 2020.

If you have an $800,000 property, it will be worth (maybe, if there are ANY ‘un-spooked’ buyers left), from $600,000 to $640,000.  Can you afford to throw two hundred thousand dollars into the street?  At $700.00 a week , that’s five and half year’s rent!

Residential property is now officially ‘on-the-nose’.  Get out!

Here it comes – and it ain’t pretty

At last, some truth.

This link from Bloomberg News 31 July 2018


This is but the tip of the iceberg.

Direct reports to me from Agents and Lenders in the marketplace are painting a far worse picture than that illustrated even by Bloomberg.

There are large areas where mortgage stress has been festering for the last couple of years.  Now we have a rising interest rate scenario combined with a rapidly falling sentiment.  Not a great combination.

Approaching tipping point

Amazing how it happens.  Political pressure and self interest ensure the general public receive almost no real news about their biggest investment…. until, of of course, it is far too late for the majority to get out of the way.

And so, it seems, today, for me at least, is the tipping point.  In reading all the major newspapers over the last week or so, there is more bad news about the faltering real estate market than I’ve seen in any previous twelve month period. And I will blow my own trumpet here – it is all OLD NEWS!  I have been writing about this day for the last 3 years.  The craziness in the market – the craziness in the eyes of desperate ill-informed bidders at auctions, and the interference of the Chinese Government, through it’s agents, in using money sent to Australia to blow Auctions out of the water!

The sheer fright will start in Nappy Land, with over geared, lied-to youngsters with massively high percentage mortgages against their poorly built and badly located “dream houses’ in the middle of nowhere.  The suffering will start here and be the greatest pain to the people who, sadly, can least afford it.  There is so much of this “crap” property that I would not be surprised to see 50% drops as streets fill up with Auction signs emblazoned with “Mortgagee In Possession” stickers at 45 degree angles, as if to add to the misery knowing that the Banks are going steal back your biggest  possession (Notice I did not say “asset” because it ain’t an asset if it’s an albatross!).  Property the Banks financed knowing full well that this day would come.  Brokers who continue to complete bullshit Loan Applications to Bankers who rubber stamp and approve anything with a thready pulse!

I read the local joke of a paper where colourful articles showcase multi-million dollar sales in flash locations as if the owners have made yet another couple of million profit. The facts are that these behemoths have been on the market for 2 years or more, have started at $4.9 million ask and were finally sold for $3.75 million.  What is not revealed is that the mortgage was $3.5 million and the necessary renovations cost $500,000.00 to make the place pass a Building and Pest Inspection!  I know these figures as FACT but I won’t embarrass anyone with the address/s.  The house next door, nearly identical in form, function, size and aspect, sold in 2013 for $5.5 million. Using the RBA Inflation calculator, the neighbours house would have to sell, in 2018, for at least $6.25 million just to get their money back!

Its all smoke and mirrors and I call bullshit on all of it!

Here it comes… as telegraphed right here

I know I’ve been ‘banging on’ about this crazed market for a while, but when anything goes this far above the inflation line and continues to skyrocket, there is always, always gonna be a correction.

This market is so full of hype and external interference that any correction, as we are now firmly ‘IN’ will not be a soft landing.  I don’t care if you adopt the brace position, its not going to do you any good.

I have followed my own advice and invested in other asset classes since 2008.  My returns, following the leadership of some really, really smart people, have outpaced property 3 to 1, and not once have I had to deal with a stroppy Property Manager or a flea bitten grub of a tenant.  Bliss and Happy Days!

Now, using your self managed super fund (SMSF) to buy an investment property has always been a bit of a dodgy exercise.  Whilst in no way an expert in SMSF, I am reliably informed that an investment property does NOT meet the basic guidelines of what you can invest in and you are liable to get yourself in a lot of strife with the Regulator. But wait! There’s more!  Westpac just pulled the plug on lending to SMSF to buy property!  I wonder why?  Shock and Horror to some but I can’t believe its taken this long! The other Banks and major lenders will all follow suit shortly I’d imagine.  No one wants to be left ‘holding the bag’ when this market goes from a slowdown to a Zip Line ride into a cliff!

Several friends of mine have actually taken my advice and divested themselves of their properties for top prices.  They are very happy sitting on their pile of cash – some waiting to buy their own place back for $200,000.00 less! Oh – it will happen.  I am old enough to have seen this before.

When you get big banks getting this nervous and making quantum shifts in policy, it’s time to lift your head out of the trough and take a good long sniff before that lion sneaking up behind you takes a huge bite out of your ass!

Educate yourselves and get out of this market NOW!

Onward and downward it goes

It seems at last my “Sky Is Falling” predictions are coming home to roost.  The Brisbane market is still flooded with apartments with 8,000 coming on stream before the end of 2018 and another 5,000 or so due in 2019.  The important part to note is what the Registered Valuers and Banks are doing to the asking prices…  The Valuations are coming in at 15 to 30 percent below the asking price. This will cause a few undesirable effects.  Existing owners may panic and put their apartments on the market, causing the glut to only increase and put further downward pressure on prices.  Brokers and Banks with no morals will continue to stitch people up into loans for these overpriced properties by lending against another property to make up for the shortfall in “real value”.

I’ve been following “Nappy Land” north of the Gold Coast in real time.  There are already a startling number of mortgagee in possession sales going on with the Banks putting pressure or caveats on Agents to NOT USE the term Mortgagee in Possession on any form of advertising lest it create a panic in the marketplace.  Interest rates look set to rise in 2019.  A One Percent rise in Nappy Land, where most of the people have no in depth knowledge about what kind of loan they signed up for,  will cause terminal failure mortgage stress.  The median repayment will jump from their INTEREST ONLY LOAN to PRINCIPAL AND INTEREST LOAN, some $800.00 a month in the majority of cases.  These people have NO IDEA what is about to hit them.  No idea!

Locally, I am sick of reading about people buying 3 years ago for $600,000 and selling at auction for $720,000.  Marvellous I hear you say.  In one recent instance I took a trip to the house itself and spoke to the neighbours.  This house had a half floor second story added, another garage, a wall on the street frontage, electric gate, carport and the double garage converted to a rumpus room.  Honestly, after that expenditure do you think they made any profit at all?  I don’t think so.  It is just this kind of bullshit journalism that continues to feed the Fairy Tale that even in these times, buying a house is a great idea.

The Sydney market is toast!  I have many friends who live in Sydney and report real time sales in their area to me.  Same story.  Big falls off highs and auction clearance rates that say that Buyers are now in “Bargain Hunting Mode” at Auctions and are not being as caught up in the fever as they were a year ago.


If you have a property and especially if you are relying on its sale to fund your retirement, sell it NOW, realise any gains, go rent for a while and then buy your old place back at $200,000, $300,000 or even $400,000 less than you sold it for.

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